Matthew Garrett

And iPhone is cleaning their clock anyway.

Nobody ever read the 64-bit transition paper Eric and I wrote:

http://catb.org/~esr/writings/world-domination/world-domination-201.html

The thesis was that network effects create a positive feedback loop around a de-facto standard, and the only time these standards get replaced is when hardware obsolescence forces a new standard. The switch between 8 bit, 16 bit, 32 bit, and 64 bit PCs went like clockwork according to Moore's Law, and we pointed out "hey, switch coming" just before the 64 bit PC software standard got locked down.

Here's the follow-up I wrote:

http://landley.net/notes-2011.html#26-06-2011

where I pointed out that the 32->64 bit PC transition gets trumped by the next step in "mainframe -> minicomputer -> microcomputer -> smartphone", and that smart phones are going to render PCs obsolete as soon as they become self-hosting.

I.E. Linux on the desktop _does_not_matter_ because the PC is going the way of the minicomputer. Windows is finally going away, and at the moment it looks like it'll be replaced with the iPhone. (Note: tablets that are small PCs fail, tablets that are big phones sell faster than Apple can make them.)

It _might_ still be android, but if we're paralyzed by infighting like last time we'll lock ourselves out of this transition the same way we got locked out of the last couple, EVEN IF ANDROID SUCCEEDS. (Right now android's userspace is a minimal stub to run Java, so the no gpl in userspace thing is still kinda secondary to that. Keep in mind they could have run busybox or the gnu tools 5 years ago: they chose not to, they still choose not to, and you're going to die of old age waiting for them to change their minds on this.)

But at this point, failing due to infighting is a hallowed Unix tradition...

Rob